In the past, payroll managers depended largely on the number of personal exemptions claimed by an employee to determine family size, which helped them calculate how much federal income tax to withhold throughout the year. But under the new rules, personal exemptions were eliminated entirely, making it more difficult for payroll departments to determine accurate tax withholding for each worker.
“The new rules didn’t take into account family size in the same way that they did before,” said Sarah Austin, policy analyst at liberal think tank the Maine Center for Economic Policy.
The result was that a large number of workers were paying less than 100 percent of their actual federal income tax liability throughout the year, she said, which made the tax cut look bigger than it really was. Some critics have claimed that this was by design, but Austin said there is no hard evidence to support that allegation.
Regardless of the motivation, the outcome has been a decrease in tax refunds and an increase in the number of people who owe federal taxes, she said.
“Because they were paying less over the year than they should have been, they’re getting smaller refunds or they’re actually having to pay tax liabilities when that wasn’t the case before,” Austin said.
According to Internal Revenue Service data on federal income tax returns filed nationwide as of March 22, the number of taxpayers receiving refunds decreased by about 2.6 percent from a year earlier, while the aggregate amount of tax refunds was down by nearly $6 billion, roughly 3 percent. However, about 2 percent fewer tax returns had been filed than by March 22 of 2018.
According to the IRS, the average tax refund amount was down by only about $10. Still, Austin said the average doesn’t indicate whether certain groups came out better or worse than others. She cited a recent U.S. Government Accountability Office report that found single-income married couples with children were the most likely group to have their income taxes incorrectly withheld in 2018.
Both Dufour and Austin noted that taxpayers can ask their payroll managers to increase their federal income tax withholding for the current year to ensure they don’t experience a repeat deficit on their next tax return.